Rejoice and be merry, for architects are on the rise again!
Ok, that statement may be overselling it. Nonetheless, new statistics indicate that a key trio of design and construction sectors — architecture, landscape architecture, and engineering — is continuing a steady recovery following the global financial crisis of 2008. Figures released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) show that average annual employment for firms providing architecture and engineering services rose by around 50,000 jobs last year; we have not yet reached pre-recession levels, but we are getting there.
While the data represented in the graph above is reason to be cautiously optimistic, these growing blue bars belie the stark variation in fortunes from sector to sector. The full set of data has been dissected and published by Architect Magazine, which looks not only at the overall health of the industry, but also highlights which disciplines are recovering more quickly than others.
Take a look at the breakdown below.
The numbers make most pleasant reading for those in engineering and drafting services, which have been amongst the most resilient sectors in the construction industry during the six-year global economic struggle. The levels of employment in occupations dipped slightly after 2008, but have since returned to pre-recession figures.
Landscape architects, on the other hand, have not been so fortunate.
In the face of tighter financial constraints, it seems that clients are quicker to forgo landscape design services than others, as this specialist sector has suffered a sharp drop in employment numbers after 2008 and has yet to recover. What remains unclear from the figures, though, is just how many landscape services have been absorbed by larger multi-disciplinary firms, as many look to offer a wider spectrum of design services during this tough economic period.
And last but by no means least…
Employment in architectural services saw a marginal rise in 2014 as the profession recovers at a lackadaisical pace after a precipitous drop-off following the financial crisis. The industry employed 214,000 people in 2007, but this number dropped by roughly a quarter over the following four years, reaching a low point of 153,000 in 2011. Since then, increases in employment have been sluggish but consistent. Kermit Baker, the chief economist for the American Institute of Architects, has estimated that 163,000 were employed in 2014, a rise of 10,000 over the last three years.
Ostensibly, it appears that recovery across the board is steady, but slow. Consistent levels of employment in engineering and drafting over the past five years indicates that clients have elected to maintain the use of practical services, while the additional cost of design services were cut during the same period, leading to tougher times for architectural disciplines.
Now, for the good news: Last Thursday, the AIA released projected construction spending figures for the next two years, and it makes for incredibly encouraging reading. The Consensus Construction forecast predicts a 7.7 percent rise in construction spending in 2015, with an 8.2 percent rise in 2016. These healthy numbers are being fueled by a substantial increase in demand for hotel and office buildings, with spending in those sectors set to increase next year by 15.3 percent and 12.9 percent respectively.
Kermit Baker summarized the hopeful forecast in his economic update for the AIA for the first quarter of 2015. With every sector set to grow — the first time since the Great Recession that such a projection has been made — architects have reason to be optimistic. However, it is crucial that the profession positions itself as a creative catalyst at this time, utilizing great design to squeeze the potential, both social and economic, out of every new development on the horizon.
The figures from the past five years only serve to re-emphasize how important it is for the profession to highlight the real added value that good design can bring to projects of all scales, and with a brighter future for the construction industry being predicted, this is more crucial than ever. When design services are regarded not as luxuries but as essential components of development, demand will increase once again — and employment numbers will recover in its wake.
What can our profession do to become more resilient in the face of future economic turbulence? The floor is all yours…
Yours statistically,
The Angry Architect
All graphs and statistics via Architect Magazine